While most of the currency pairs are in a loose range bound as talk and evidence of a US economic recession builds, the Dollar has witnessed a slight upswing. How to explain these seemingly contradictory trends? The rationale is surprisingly simple. While a US recession would predictably hit the US harder than other countries, it would still hamper growth abroad, especially in emerging markets that have come to depend on exports to the US to drive growth. Accordingly, investing in such emerging markets becomes relatively more risky than investing in the US, which is still considered to have the world's most stable investing climate from a long-term perspective. Thus, as risk aversion rises, so does the Dollar.
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